Mid-state forecasters: Here comes Harvey!

Aug 30, 2017

Credit weather.gov

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (OSBORNE)  --  The National Weather Service has issued weather advisories for Middle Tennessee suggesting we could see dangerous amounts of rain over the next three days.

The forecast is still iffy. Depending on how slow Harvey moves -- and whether the system hits the mid-state directly or just a glancing blow -- will depend on how much rain Middle Tennessee will see.

The first round of storms arrive in the area Wednesday afternoon and into the overnight hours.  Mid-state soil is dry just now so most of that rain should be soaked up without any problems.

But Thursday another batch of moisture moves in and lingers into Friday. The forecast then is for anything from 3 to 8 inches of rain here in Middle Tennessee. 

Here are the complete texts of the warnings from the National Weather Service for the mid-state:

Hydrologic Outlook Hydrologic Outlook TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-302300- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 551 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 ...Remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey Will Bring Heavy Rainfall to the Mid-State Wednesday Through Early Saturday... Summary and Timing... The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey will impact the region beginning on Wednesday and continuing through early Saturday morning. A first wave of precipitation will move through the area Wednesday through early Thursday, with the second wave moving in Thursday afternoon through Friday evening. The low pressure area will continue its track to the northeast Saturday, with rain chances diminishing considerably. Amounts... The first wave of rainfall will sweep into southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening, then push into northern areas late tonight and Thursday morning. Rainfall totals over the area are expected to range mainly between one and one and a half inches. The second wave will bring the heaviest rainfall, and will last from Thursday through Friday evening. The heavy rains will spread into areas west of I-65 during the day Thursday, then spread eastward into other sections of the Mid-State Thursday night into Friday. The heaviest rainfall is generally expected to occur in areas north of Interstate 40 and west of Interstate 65...where additional rainfall of 4 to 7 inches is forecast. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected elsewhere. Storm total rainfall, from Wednesday through Friday evening, will range from around 2 inches over the Cumberland Plateau, to between 6 and 8 inches over the extreme northwest...including Clarksville and parts of the lower Cumberland River Basin. Impacts... The first wave of rainfall today and tonight will moisten soils considerably, but it is the second wave of heavier rains Thursday and Friday that will stand the greatest chance of producing flood problems for the Mid-State. Creeks and rivers may rise and get to action/flood stage Friday through Sunday, depending on timing of heaviest rainfall and if Harvey slows slightly to drop additional rainfall. In addition, as soils become increasingly saturated over the next several days, local flash flooding could develop, especially in poorly drained low lying areas. $$ 19

Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 500 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-311000- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith- Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson- Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford- Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 500 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The remnants of Hurricane Harvey will begin to affect our weather significantly today and tonight. Rainfall amounts will start to increase overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Heavy rain will persist through Friday as Tropical Depression Harvey moves across Middle Tennessee. Total rainfall amounts through Friday are expected to range from less than 2 inches across southern parts of the Cumberland Plateau, to more than 3 inches across the Nashville metro area, to between 6 and 8 inches around Clarksville and Land-between-the-Lakes. As rainfall amounts accumulate over a period of days, flooding may develop, particularly in areas to the west and north of Nashville. In addition, all of Middle Tennessee is under a marginal risk of severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. As the center of low pressure moves directly across the mid state, it is possible that isolated tornadoes may occur, especially Thursday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tomorrow for severe storms, and also later in the week should flooding develop.